Risk Management: A Paradox

January 12, 2008

All golfers are, at some point, faced with a paradox. On one hand, success in golf requires an almost illogical favoritism towards positive thinking. On the other hand, golfers are constantly faced with risk versus reward situations. How does someone think both positively and logically in a game as cruel and unforgiving as golf?

Successfull risk management in golf requires golfers to know themselves. Every day, our bodies feel different to us and have different capabilities. Knowing our capabilities on any given day, we can judge our chances of success for a particular shot based on our average chance of success.

Knowing your average chance of success requires keeping track of your rounds. You don’t need to remember every single shot, but if you’ve been playing for a while, you probably know the shot, the situation, or the club that tends to get you in trouble. The best and most common example I can think of is using a fairway wood to attempt to hit a par five in two.

Here’s what to do. Every time you face an opportunity to hit a par five in two, make a note of it (your scorecard makes a fine notepad). Write down what you did (went for it or laid up) and what the result was (final score on the hole).

To keep the calculations and record-keeping to a minimum, all you need to do is calculate your average score for the times you went for the green in two and your average score for the times you laid up. Which one is smaller?

It goes without saying that risk management involves intangible factors that are difficult to calculate using numbers. Each situation is different, each shot is different, and each day is different. You are more likely to lay up on holes with greenside trouble and more likely to go for it when your down by two strokes with one hole to go. Using statistics can help you see the bigger picture, and you can use it as a tool to assist in better golf course management. Although they don’t always tell the whole truth, numbers never lie.

Written by John at 2:50 pm. Mental Game